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Kaisar vs Atyrau — Premier League 2019

Kaisar
Kaisar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atyrau
Atyrau
8/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Gani Muratbayev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Kaisar42%
×Draw28%
Atyrau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaisar
1.25
Atyrau
1.01

Kaisar creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kaisar
0.95
Atyrau
0.91

allows per match

Kaisar
1.11
Atyrau
1.54

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par
Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

Atyrau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw
70%
Kaisar or Atyrau
72%
Draw or Atyrau
58%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+
19%
Atyrau wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals
71%
Kaisar 2+ goals
36%
Kaisar 3+ goals
13%
Atyrau 1+ goals
64%
Atyrau 2+ goals
27%
Atyrau 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)
58%
Atyrau (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Atyrau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 0.95 + Atyrau defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atyrau attack 0.91 + Kaisar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaisar scores more
42%
level
28%
Atyrau scores more
30%

Kaisar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaisar 0 – 0 Atyrau

Kaisar and Atyrau drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Gani Muratbayev in Kyzylorda.