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Kaisar vs Aktobe — Premier League 2019

Kaisar
Kaisar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aktobe
Aktobe
5/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Gani Muratbayev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Kaisar38%
×Draw28%
Aktobe35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaisar
1.23
Aktobe
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 88 away

creates per match

Kaisar
0.95
Aktobe
1.23

allows per match

Kaisar
1.11
Aktobe
1.52

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par
Aktobe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

Aktobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw
65%
Kaisar or Aktobe
72%
Draw or Aktobe
62%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+
16%
Aktobe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals
71%
Kaisar 2+ goals
35%
Kaisar 3+ goals
13%
Aktobe 1+ goals
69%
Aktobe 2+ goals
33%
Aktobe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)
52%
Aktobe (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Aktobe away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 0.95 + Aktobe defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Aktobe attack 1.23 + Kaisar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kaisar scores more
38%
level
28%
Aktobe scores more
35%

Kaisar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaisar 1 – 2 Aktobe

Aktobe beat Kaisar 2-1 in Premier League on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Gani Muratbayev in Kyzylorda.