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Kaisar vs Aktobe — Cup 2019

Kaisar
Kaisar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aktobe
Aktobe
7/31/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 3Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kaisar46%
×Draw26%
Aktobe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaisar
1.46
Aktobe
1.08

Kaisar creates 35% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kaisar
1.43
Aktobe
1.30

allows per match

Kaisar
0.86
Aktobe
1.50

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par
Aktobe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

Aktobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw
72%
Kaisar or Aktobe
74%
Draw or Aktobe
54%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+
22%
Aktobe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals
77%
Kaisar 2+ goals
43%
Kaisar 3+ goals
18%
Aktobe 1+ goals
66%
Aktobe 2+ goals
29%
Aktobe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)
62%
Aktobe (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Aktobe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 1.43 + Aktobe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aktobe attack 1.30 + Kaisar defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kaisar scores more
46%
level
26%
Aktobe scores more
28%

Kaisar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaisar 1 – 0 Aktobe

Kaisar beat Aktobe 1-0 in Cup on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva in Kyzylorda.