Kairat Moskva 1–1 Smolensk: Result & Stats

Kairat Moskva

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Smolensk

7/24/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Stadion Oktyabr' 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kairat Moskva53%

×Draw22%

Smolensk24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat MoskvaExpected goals in this matchSmolensk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.21

Kairat Moskva

1.90

Smolensk

1.21

Kairat Moskva creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

1.88

creates per match

0.73

1.69

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Kairat Moskva

1.88

Smolensk

0.73

allows per match

Kairat Moskva

1.69

Smolensk

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Smolensk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw

76%

Kairat Moskva or Smolensk

78%

Draw or Smolensk

47%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+

31%

Smolensk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals

85%

Kairat Moskva 2+ goals

56%

Kairat Moskva 3+ goals

29%

Smolensk 1+ goals

70%

Smolensk 2+ goals

34%

Smolensk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)

69%

Smolensk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 1.88 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more

53%

level

22%

Smolensk scores more

24%

Kairat Moskva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kairat Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff