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Kairat Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
6/4/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 11Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kairat Moskva29%
×Draw24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Moskva
1.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.63

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kairat Moskva
1.88
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.56

allows per match

Kairat Moskva
1.69
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.63

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw
54%
Kairat Moskva or Shinnik Yaroslavl
76%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
71%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
12%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
36%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
13%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
80%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
48%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
39%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 1.88 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.56 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more
29%
level
24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
46%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Kairat Moskva 2–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Kairat Moskva and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo in Odintsovo.