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Kairat Moskva vs Rotor Volgograd — Cup 2019

Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
8/25/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 2Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kairat Moskva23%
×Draw26%
Rotor Volgograd51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Moskva
0.92
Rotor Volgograd
1.50

Rotor Volgograd creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kairat Moskva
0.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

allows per match

Kairat Moskva
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.50

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw
49%
Kairat Moskva or Rotor Volgograd
74%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
77%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
8%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
60%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
23%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
7%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
78%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
44%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
31%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 0.33 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.00 + Kairat Moskva defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more
23%
level
26%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
51%

Rotor Volgograd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Moskva vs Rotor Volgograd

Rotor Volgograd beat Kairat Moskva 3-0 in Cup on August 25, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo in Odintsovo.