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Kairat Moskva vs Kaluga — Cup 2019

Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
7/28/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundStadion Oktyabr'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kairat Moskva17%
×Draw24%
Kaluga59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Moskva
0.75
Kaluga
1.67

Kaluga creates 123% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kairat Moskva
0.33
Kaluga
1.33

allows per match

Kairat Moskva
2.00
Kaluga
1.17

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw
41%
Kairat Moskva or Kaluga
76%
Draw or Kaluga
83%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
5%
Kaluga wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
53%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
17%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
4%
Kaluga 1+ goals
81%
Kaluga 2+ goals
50%
Kaluga 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
22%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Kaluga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 0.33 + Kaluga defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Kaluga attack 1.33 + Kairat Moskva defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more
17%
level
24%
Kaluga scores more
59%

Kaluga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Moskva vs Kaluga

Kairat Moskva beat Kaluga 1-0 in Cup on July 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' in Moskva.