Kairat Almaty 5–1 Turan Turkistan: Result & Stats

Kairat Almaty

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Turan Turkistan

João Paulo 90+4', 74', 34'

I. Khomukha 29' (OG)

G. Zaria 18'

N. Cuckić 86'

10/19/2024

Premier League · Round 23Ortalyq stadıon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kairat Almaty70%

×Draw18%

Turan Turkistan12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat AlmatyExpected goals in this matchTuran Turkistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.80

Kairat Almaty

2.23

Turan Turkistan

0.80

Kairat Almaty creates 179% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 25 away

2.11

creates per match

0.76

0.85

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Kairat Almaty

2.11

Turan Turkistan

0.76

allows per match

Kairat Almaty

0.85

Turan Turkistan

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Turan Turkistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw

88%

Kairat Almaty or Turan Turkistan

82%

Draw or Turan Turkistan

30%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

46%

Turan Turkistan wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

89%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

65%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

38%

Turan Turkistan 1+ goals

55%

Turan Turkistan 2+ goals

19%

Turan Turkistan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

85%

Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

Turan Turkistan away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.11 + Turan Turkistan defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.23

Turan Turkistan attack 0.76 + Kairat Almaty defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more

70%

level

18%

Turan Turkistan scores more

12%

Kairat Almaty at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

G. Zaria

29'

I. KhomukhaOwn goal

34'

João Paulo

46'

A. Arkhipov← A. Mishov

46'

A. Jakoliš← A. Khadzhiev

46'

P. Kireenko← B. Shaikhov

64'

V. Shvyryov← Élder Santana

66'

S. Satanov← A. Dmitrijev

73'

D. Sergeev← O. Baybek

74'

João Paulo

77'

R. Nurmugamet← L. Vaca

79'

D. Kasabulat← Y. Seydakhmet

79'

A. Ulshin← G. Zaria

86'

N. Cuckić

90+4'

João Paulo

Kairat3-5-2

Turan3-5-2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

Manager: R. Urazbakhtin

64'▲V. Shvyryov←▼Élder Santana

73'▲D. Sergeev←▼O. Baybek

79'▲D. Kasabulat←▼Y. Seydakhmet

79'▲A. Ulshin←▼G. Zaria

Kairat Almaty substitutes

ShvyryovSergeevKasabulatUlshinUstimenkoKurginBuranchievMrynskiyMendygalievOmatayAskarov

Manager: R. Alyuetov

46'▲A. Arkhipov←▼A. Mishov

46'▲A. Jakoliš←▼A. Khadzhiev

46'▲P. Kireenko←▼B. Shaikhov

66'▲S. Satanov←▼A. Dmitrijev

77'▲R. Nurmugamet←▼L. Vaca

Turan Turkistan substitutes

ArkhipovJakolišKireenkoSatanovNurmugametSuleyMukashevZhomartFejzajZakirov

Premier League: Kairat Almaty 5–1 Turan Turkistan

Kairat Almaty beat Turan Turkistan 5-1 in Premier League on October 19, 2024.

Goals: G. Zaria (18'), I. Khomukha (29' o.g.), João Paulo (34', 74', 90+4'), N. Cuckić (86').

The match was played at Ortalyq stadıon in Almaty.

Kairat Almaty vs Turan Turkistan — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Kairat Almaty 5–1 Turan Turkistan