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Kairat Almaty vs Pafos — UEFA Champions League 2026

Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pafos
Pafos
10/21/2025UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Almaty Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kairat Almaty30%
×Draw33%
Pafos37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Almaty
0.85
Pafos
0.97

Pafos creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kairat Almaty
1.13
Pafos
0.57

allows per match

Kairat Almaty
1.38
Pafos
0.57

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par
Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Pafos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw
63%
Kairat Almaty or Pafos
67%
Draw or Pafos
70%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
10%
Pafos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
57%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
21%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
5%
Pafos 1+ goals
62%
Pafos 2+ goals
25%
Pafos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
45%
Pafos (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Pafos away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 1.13 + Pafos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Pafos attack 0.57 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more
30%
level
33%
Pafos scores more
37%

Pafos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
João Correia
21'
Dastan Satpaev
40'
Ofri Arad
46'
A. Tuyakbaev← E. Tapalov
61'
G. Zaria← D. Glazer
66'
D. Goldar← K. Pileas
66'
M. Bassouamina← D. Quina
74'
Temirlan AnarbekovGoal cancelled
79'
Ivan Šunjić
79'
L. Dimata← Pepe
79'
K. Sema← M. Orsic
82'
Azamat Tuyakbayev
89'
D. Kasabulat← V. Gromyko
90+2'
Ricardinho← O. Arad
90'
B. Langa← Bruno

Possession

69%Kairat

Shots

22Kairat

Pass accuracy

56%Kairat

Statistics

KairatPafos
Overview
69%Possession31%
22Total Shots9
1.26Expected Goals (xG)1.76
6Corners4
11Fouls9
Shots
22Total Shots9
2On Target6
13Off Target2
7Blocked1
9Inside Box8
13Outside Box1
Passing
69%Possession31%
565Total Passes252
477Accurate Passes164
84%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
0.57Goals Prevented0.57
Discipline
11Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Kairat Almaty vs Pafos

Kairat Almaty and Pafos drew 0-0 in UEFA Champions League on October 21, 2025.

Kairat Almaty controlled possession (69%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Almaty Central Stadium in Almaty.