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Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy — Cup 2019

Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
7/9/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 1Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kairat Almaty40%
×Draw25%
Ordabasy35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Almaty
1.44
Ordabasy
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kairat Almaty
2.00
Ordabasy
1.65

allows per match

Kairat Almaty
1.00
Ordabasy
0.88

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par
Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Ordabasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw
65%
Kairat Almaty or Ordabasy
75%
Draw or Ordabasy
60%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
19%
Ordabasy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
76%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
42%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
18%
Ordabasy 1+ goals
73%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
38%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
54%
Ordabasy (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.00 + Ordabasy defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ordabasy attack 1.65 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more
40%
level
25%
Ordabasy scores more
35%

Kairat Almaty at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy

Kairat Almaty beat Ordabasy 2-0 in Cup on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Almaty.