Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia

Kairat Almaty

Preview

15:00

Omonia Nicosia

7/29/2026

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundAlmaty Central Stadium

40%

Kairat Almaty

model favours

40%30%31%

Kairat Almaty have won 7 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

64%

under 2.5 goals

42%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kairat Almaty40%

×Draw30%

Omonia Nicosia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat AlmatyExpected goals in this matchOmonia Nicosia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.97

Kairat Almaty

1.15

Omonia Nicosia

0.97

Kairat Almaty creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

1.30

creates per match

0.75

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kairat Almaty

1.30

Omonia Nicosia

0.75

allows per match

Kairat Almaty

1.20

Omonia Nicosia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Omonia Nicosia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw

69%

Kairat Almaty or Omonia Nicosia

70%

Draw or Omonia Nicosia

60%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

17%

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

68%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

32%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

11%

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

62%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

25%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

57%

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 1.30 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Omonia Nicosia attack 0.75 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more

40%

level

30%

Omonia Nicosia scores more

31%

Kairat Almaty at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Kairat Almaty have scored in 9 games running
When Kairat Almaty score first, they win 83% of the time
31% of Kairat Almaty’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Almaty

WWWW

Nicosia

DDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff