Kairat Almaty 2–1 Kyzyl-Zhar: Result & Stats

Kairat Almaty

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kyzyl-Zhar

3/2/2024

Premier League · Round 1Ortalyq stadıon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kairat Almaty57%

×Draw24%

Kyzyl-Zhar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat AlmatyExpected goals in this matchKyzyl-Zhar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.83

Kairat Almaty

1.65

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.83

Kairat Almaty creates 99% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 79 away

2.11

creates per match

0.81

0.85

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Kairat Almaty

2.11

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.81

allows per match

Kairat Almaty

0.85

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Kyzyl-Zhar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw

81%

Kairat Almaty or Kyzyl-Zhar

76%

Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar

43%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

31%

Kyzyl-Zhar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

81%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

49%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

23%

Kyzyl-Zhar 1+ goals

56%

Kyzyl-Zhar 2+ goals

20%

Kyzyl-Zhar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

75%

Kyzyl-Zhar (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.11 + Kyzyl-Zhar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kyzyl-Zhar attack 0.81 + Kairat Almaty defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more

57%

level

24%

Kyzyl-Zhar scores more

19%

Kairat Almaty at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff