Kairat Almaty vs Kaisar — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 81+ matches
Kairat Almaty57%
Kaisar20%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kairat Almaty creates 89% more chances
Season form · 96 home / 81 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kairat Almaty ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches
Kaisar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.52 · 81 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kairat Almaty attack 2.11 + Kaisar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.81
Kaisar attack 1.07 + Kairat Almaty defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Kairat Almaty at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Kaisar substitutes
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kairat Almaty host Kaisar on Saturday, 19 July 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Kairat Almaty vs Kaisar
Kairat Almaty and Kaisar drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 19, 2025.
Goals: R. Bagdat (21'), M. Aymanov (54' pen).
The match was played at Almaty Central Stadium in Almaty.