Kairat Almaty 4–1 FK Aksu: Result & Stats

Kairat Almaty

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

FK Aksu

10/21/2023

Premier League · Round 25Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kairat Almaty67%

×Draw20%

FK Aksu13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat AlmatyExpected goals in this matchFK Aksu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.79

Kairat Almaty

2.08

FK Aksu

0.79

Kairat Almaty creates 163% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 26 away

2.11

creates per match

0.73

0.85

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Kairat Almaty

2.11

FK Aksu

0.73

allows per match

Kairat Almaty

0.85

FK Aksu

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

FK Aksu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw

87%

Kairat Almaty or FK Aksu

80%

Draw or FK Aksu

33%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

42%

FK Aksu wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

87%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

61%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

34%

FK Aksu 1+ goals

55%

FK Aksu 2+ goals

19%

FK Aksu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

84%

FK Aksu (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.11 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.08

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + Kairat Almaty defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more

67%

level

20%

FK Aksu scores more

13%

Kairat Almaty at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff