Kairat Almaty 2–3 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Kairat Almaty

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

FC Basel 1893

K. Hovhannisyan 56'

Vágner Love 23'

P. Kasami 72'

E. Zhegrova 69'

Arthur Cabral 45' (pen)

11/25/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kairat Almaty31%

×Draw27%

FC Basel 189342%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat AlmatyExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.36

Kairat Almaty

1.14

FC Basel 1893

1.36

FC Basel 1893 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

1.20

creates per match

1.33

1.40

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Kairat Almaty

1.20

FC Basel 1893

1.33

allows per match

Kairat Almaty

1.40

FC Basel 1893

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw

58%

Kairat Almaty or FC Basel 1893

73%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

69%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

13%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

68%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

32%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

11%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

74%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

39%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

43%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 1.20 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.33 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more

31%

level

27%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

42%

FC Basel 1893 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

W. Burger

FC Basel 1893 · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Dino Mikanović

-5'

Ricardo Alves

23'

Vágner Love↳ João Paulo

44'

Jacek Góralski

45'

Arthur CabralPenalty

54'

Andy Pelmard

55'

A. Shushenachev← J. Kanté

55'

K. Hovhannisyan← D. Mikanović

55'

A. Abiken← Ricardo Alves

56'

K. Hovhannisyan

61'

Valentin Stocker

64'

Sergio López← M. Lang

64'

E. Zhegrova← L. Millar

64'

M. Palacios← V. Stocker

66'

Pajtim Kasami

69'

E. Zhegrova↳ D. Ndoye

70'

G. Alykulov← João Paulo

72'

P. Kasami↳ Tomás Tavares

77'

Aibol Abiken

77'

Arthur Cabral

80'

Y. Seidakhmet← Vágner Love

88'

88'

89'

90+3'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KairatFC

Overview

35%Possession65%

15Total Shots11

4Corners6

14Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target4

8Off Target5

1Blocked2

10Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

35%Possession65%

288Total Passes519

179Accurate Passes404

62%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

6Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1