Kairat Almaty 0–0 Celtic: Result & Stats

Kairat Almaty

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Celtic

8/26/2025

UEFA Champions League · Play-offsAlmaty Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kairat Almaty43%

×Draw26%

Celtic31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat AlmatyExpected goals in this matchCeltic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.15

Kairat Almaty

1.40

Celtic

1.15

Kairat Almaty creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.30

creates per match

1.10

1.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kairat Almaty

1.30

Celtic

1.10

allows per match

Kairat Almaty

1.20

Celtic

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw

69%

Kairat Almaty or Celtic

74%

Draw or Celtic

57%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

20%

Celtic wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

75%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

41%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

17%

Celtic 1+ goals

68%

Celtic 2+ goals

32%

Celtic 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

58%

Celtic (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Celtic away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 1.30 + Celtic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Celtic attack 1.10 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more

43%

level

26%

Celtic scores more

31%

Kairat Almaty at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

D. Kasabulat← D. Glazer

70'

A. Idah← Yang Hyun-Jun

70'

A. Engels← J. Forrest

75'

D. Murray← K. Tierney

80'

R. Bagdat← Ricardinho

101'

Reo Hatate

106'

L. McCowan← R. Hatate

106'

C. Donovan← A. Ralston

117'

J. Stanojev← E. Tapalov

119'

O. Baybek← L. Mata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KairatCeltic

Overview

33%Possession67%

12Total Shots11

5Corners7

12Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target5

4Off Target2

4Blocked4

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

340Total Passes721

216Accurate Passes598

64%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls19

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0