Kahta 02 Spor 3–1 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats

Kahta 02 Spor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kasımpaşa

B. Ceylan 90'

A. T. Akil 41'

Y. Firat 20'

B. Ozden 10'

10/29/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kahta 02 Spor57%

×Draw22%

Kasımpaşa21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kahta 02 SporExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.09

Kahta 02 Spor

1.94

Kasımpaşa

1.09

Kahta 02 Spor creates 78% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

2.33

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Kahta 02 Spor

2.33

Kasımpaşa

1.18

allows per match

Kahta 02 Spor

1.00

Kasımpaşa

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kahta 02 Spor+0.00on par

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahta 02 Spor ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kahta 02 Spor or draw

79%

Kahta 02 Spor or Kasımpaşa

78%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

43%

Winning margin

Kahta 02 Spor wins by 2+

33%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kahta 02 Spor 1+ goals

86%

Kahta 02 Spor 2+ goals

58%

Kahta 02 Spor 3+ goals

30%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

66%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

30%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kahta 02 Spor (draw refunded)

73%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahta 02 Spor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahta 02 Spor attack 2.33 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 + Kahta 02 Spor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kahta 02 Spor scores more

57%

level

22%

Kasımpaşa scores more

21%

Kahta 02 Spor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kahta 02 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Ozden↳ B. Cetinkaya

20'

Y. Firat↳ E. Nazli

41'

A. T. Akil

90'

B. Ceylan

Kahta

Kasımpaşa

Manager: Shota Arveladze