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Kahta 02 Spor vs İskenderunspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kahta 02 Spor
Kahta 02 Spor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
İskenderunspor
İskenderunspor
9/3/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundKahta İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kahta 02 Spor64%
×Draw20%
İskenderunspor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahta 02 Spor
2.17
İskenderunspor
1.00

Kahta 02 Spor creates 117% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kahta 02 Spor
2.33
İskenderunspor
1.00

allows per match

Kahta 02 Spor
1.00
İskenderunspor
2.00

finishing

Kahta 02 Spor+0.00on par
İskenderunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahta 02 Spor ↓

İskenderunspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kahta 02 Spor or draw
84%
Kahta 02 Spor or İskenderunspor
80%
Draw or İskenderunspor
36%

Winning margin

Kahta 02 Spor wins by 2+
40%
İskenderunspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kahta 02 Spor 1+ goals
89%
Kahta 02 Spor 2+ goals
64%
Kahta 02 Spor 3+ goals
36%
İskenderunspor 1+ goals
63%
İskenderunspor 2+ goals
26%
İskenderunspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kahta 02 Spor (draw refunded)
80%
İskenderunspor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahta 02 Spor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

İskenderunspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahta 02 Spor attack 2.33 + İskenderunspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

İskenderunspor attack 1.00 + Kahta 02 Spor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kahta 02 Spor scores more
64%
level
20%
İskenderunspor scores more
16%

Kahta 02 Spor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kahta 02 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kahta 02 Spor 2–1 İskenderunspor

Kahta 02 Spor beat İskenderunspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 3, 2025.

The match was played at Kahta İlçe Stadyumu in Kahta.