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Kahta 02 Spor vs Adana Demirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kahta 02 Spor
Kahta 02 Spor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
9/16/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKahta İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kahta 02 Spor72%
×Draw18%
Adana Demirspor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahta 02 Spor
2.17
Adana Demirspor
0.67

Kahta 02 Spor creates 224% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kahta 02 Spor
2.33
Adana Demirspor
0.33

allows per match

Kahta 02 Spor
1.00
Adana Demirspor
2.00

finishing

Kahta 02 Spor+0.00on par
Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahta 02 Spor ↓

Adana Demirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kahta 02 Spor or draw
90%
Kahta 02 Spor or Adana Demirspor
82%
Draw or Adana Demirspor
28%

Winning margin

Kahta 02 Spor wins by 2+
47%
Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kahta 02 Spor 1+ goals
89%
Kahta 02 Spor 2+ goals
64%
Kahta 02 Spor 3+ goals
36%
Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
49%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
15%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kahta 02 Spor (draw refunded)
88%
Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahta 02 Spor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahta 02 Spor attack 2.33 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Adana Demirspor attack 0.33 + Kahta 02 Spor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kahta 02 Spor scores more
72%
level
18%
Adana Demirspor scores more
10%

Kahta 02 Spor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Kahta 02 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kahta 02 Spor vs Adana Demirspor

Kahta 02 Spor beat Adana Demirspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 16, 2025.

The match was played at Kahta İlçe Stadyumu in Kahta.