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Kahramanmaraşspor vs Ümraniyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kahramanmaraşspor
Kahramanmaraşspor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
K. Karaca 80'
K. Yilmaz 41'
H. Cakmak 39'
E. Aydin 7'
10/28/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kahramanmaraşspor58%
×Draw23%
Ümraniyespor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.84
Ümraniyespor
0.95

Kahramanmaraşspor creates 94% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.88
Ümraniyespor
0.90

allows per match

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
1.80

finishing

Kahramanmaraşspor+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahramanmaraşspor ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kahramanmaraşspor or draw
81%
Kahramanmaraşspor or Ümraniyespor
77%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
42%

Winning margin

Kahramanmaraşspor wins by 2+
34%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kahramanmaraşspor 1+ goals
84%
Kahramanmaraşspor 2+ goals
55%
Kahramanmaraşspor 3+ goals
28%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
61%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
25%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kahramanmaraşspor (draw refunded)
75%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahramanmaraşspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahramanmaraşspor attack 1.88 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ümraniyespor attack 0.90 + Kahramanmaraşspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kahramanmaraşspor scores more
58%
level
23%
Ümraniyespor scores more
19%

Kahramanmaraşspor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kahramanmaraşspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
E. Aydin
39'
H. Cakmak
41'
K. Yilmaz
80'
K. Karaca
Kahramanmaraşspor
Ümraniyespor
Ejder Orak
Manager: Ejder Orak
Tayfun Albayrak
Manager: Tayfun Albayrak

Türkiye Kupası: Kahramanmaraşspor 4–0 Ümraniyespor

Kahramanmaraşspor beat Ümraniyespor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 28, 2025.

Goals: E. Aydin (7'), H. Cakmak (39'), K. Yilmaz (41'), K. Karaca (80').