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Kahramanmaraşspor vs Osmaniyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kahramanmaraşspor
Kahramanmaraşspor
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Osmaniyespor
Osmaniyespor
9/4/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundMerkez 1 Kompleksi Sentetik Çim Futbol Sahası

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kahramanmaraşspor69%
×Draw19%
Osmaniyespor12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahramanmaraşspor
2.08
Osmaniyespor
0.71

Kahramanmaraşspor creates 193% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.88
Osmaniyespor
0.43

allows per match

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.00
Osmaniyespor
2.29

finishing

Kahramanmaraşspor+0.00on par
Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahramanmaraşspor ↓

Osmaniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kahramanmaraşspor or draw
88%
Kahramanmaraşspor or Osmaniyespor
81%
Draw or Osmaniyespor
31%

Winning margin

Kahramanmaraşspor wins by 2+
44%
Osmaniyespor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kahramanmaraşspor 1+ goals
87%
Kahramanmaraşspor 2+ goals
61%
Kahramanmaraşspor 3+ goals
34%
Osmaniyespor 1+ goals
51%
Osmaniyespor 2+ goals
16%
Osmaniyespor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kahramanmaraşspor (draw refunded)
86%
Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahramanmaraşspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Osmaniyespor away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahramanmaraşspor attack 1.88 + Osmaniyespor defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.08

Osmaniyespor attack 0.43 + Kahramanmaraşspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Kahramanmaraşspor scores more
69%
level
19%
Osmaniyespor scores more
12%

Kahramanmaraşspor at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kahramanmaraşspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kahramanmaraşspor 0–0 Osmaniyespor

Kahramanmaraşspor and Osmaniyespor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 4, 2025.

The match was played at Merkez 1 Kompleksi Sentetik Çim Futbol Sahası in Kahramanmaraş.