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Kahramanmaraşspor vs Nevşehir Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kahramanmaraşspor
Kahramanmaraşspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nevşehir Belediyespor
Nevşehir Belediyespor
9/11/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundKahramanmaraş Batıpark Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kahramanmaraşspor63%
×Draw21%
Nevşehir Belediyespor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.94
Nevşehir Belediyespor
0.83

Kahramanmaraşspor creates 134% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.88
Nevşehir Belediyespor
0.67

allows per match

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.00
Nevşehir Belediyespor
2.00

finishing

Kahramanmaraşspor+0.00on par
Nevşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahramanmaraşspor ↓

Nevşehir Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kahramanmaraşspor or draw
85%
Kahramanmaraşspor or Nevşehir Belediyespor
79%
Draw or Nevşehir Belediyespor
37%

Winning margin

Kahramanmaraşspor wins by 2+
38%
Nevşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kahramanmaraşspor 1+ goals
86%
Kahramanmaraşspor 2+ goals
58%
Kahramanmaraşspor 3+ goals
30%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
56%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
20%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kahramanmaraşspor (draw refunded)
80%
Nevşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahramanmaraşspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Nevşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahramanmaraşspor attack 1.88 + Nevşehir Belediyespor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nevşehir Belediyespor attack 0.67 + Kahramanmaraşspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kahramanmaraşspor scores more
63%
level
21%
Nevşehir Belediyespor scores more
15%

Kahramanmaraşspor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kahramanmaraşspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kahramanmaraşspor 1–0 Nevşehir Belediyespor

Kahramanmaraşspor beat Nevşehir Belediyespor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Kahramanmaraş Batıpark Stadyumu in Kahramanmaraş.