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Kahramanmaraşspor vs Alanyaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kahramanmaraşspor
Kahramanmaraşspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
12/19/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th Round12 Şubat Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kahramanmaraşspor43%
×Draw24%
Alanyaspor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.67
Alanyaspor
1.44

Kahramanmaraşspor creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.88
Alanyaspor
1.88

allows per match

Kahramanmaraşspor
1.00
Alanyaspor
1.47

finishing

Kahramanmaraşspor+0.00on par
Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahramanmaraşspor ↓

Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kahramanmaraşspor or draw
67%
Kahramanmaraşspor or Alanyaspor
76%
Draw or Alanyaspor
57%

Winning margin

Kahramanmaraşspor wins by 2+
22%
Alanyaspor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kahramanmaraşspor 1+ goals
81%
Kahramanmaraşspor 2+ goals
50%
Kahramanmaraşspor 3+ goals
23%
Alanyaspor 1+ goals
76%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
42%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kahramanmaraşspor (draw refunded)
56%
Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahramanmaraşspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahramanmaraşspor attack 1.88 + Alanyaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Alanyaspor attack 1.88 + Kahramanmaraşspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kahramanmaraşspor scores more
43%
level
24%
Alanyaspor scores more
33%

Kahramanmaraşspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kahramanmaraşspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kahramanmaraşspor vs Alanyaspor

Kahramanmaraşspor beat Alanyaspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2018.

The match was played at 12 Şubat Stadyumu in Kahramanmaraş.