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Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor vs Güzide Gebzespor — League #205 2026

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Güzide Gebzespor
Güzide Gebzespor
T. Yurtseven 90+5' (OG)
11/30/2025League #205League #205 · Kırmızı - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor46%
×Draw31%
Güzide Gebzespor23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
1.15
Güzide Gebzespor
0.72

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
1.00
Güzide Gebzespor
1.11

allows per match

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
0.33
Güzide Gebzespor
1.29

finishing

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor+0.00on par
Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor ↓

Güzide Gebzespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor or draw
77%
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor or Güzide Gebzespor
69%
Draw or Güzide Gebzespor
54%

Winning margin

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor wins by 2+
20%
Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 1+ goals
68%
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 2+ goals
32%
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 3+ goals
11%
Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals
51%
Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals
16%
Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor (draw refunded)
67%
Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Güzide Gebzespor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor attack 1.00 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.11 + Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor scores more
46%
level
31%
Güzide Gebzespor scores more
23%

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean " Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+5'
T. YurtsevenOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 1–0 Güzide Gebzespor

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor beat Güzide Gebzespor 1-0 in League #205 on November 30, 2025.

Goals: T. Yurtseven (90+5' o.g.).