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Kahraba Ismailia vs Zamalek SC — Premier League 2025

Kahraba Ismailia
Kahraba Ismailia
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
O. El Said 62'
M. I. Hassan 45' (OG)
O. Dabbagh 87', 42'
N. Mansy 73'
A. Sherif 52', 38'
2/4/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Suez Canal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kahraba Ismailia18%
×Draw22%
Zamalek SC60%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahraba Ismailia
0.92
Zamalek SC
1.90

Zamalek SC creates 107% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kahraba Ismailia
0.95
Zamalek SC
1.79

allows per match

Kahraba Ismailia
2.00
Zamalek SC
0.89

finishing

Kahraba Ismailia+0.00on par
Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahraba Ismailia ↓

Zamalek SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kahraba Ismailia or draw
40%
Kahraba Ismailia or Zamalek SC
78%
Draw or Zamalek SC
82%

Winning margin

Kahraba Ismailia wins by 2+
6%
Zamalek SC wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Kahraba Ismailia 1+ goals
60%
Kahraba Ismailia 2+ goals
23%
Kahraba Ismailia 3+ goals
7%
Zamalek SC 1+ goals
85%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
56%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kahraba Ismailia (draw refunded)
23%
Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahraba Ismailia at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahraba Ismailia attack 0.95 + Zamalek SC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Zamalek SC attack 1.79 + Kahraba Ismailia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kahraba Ismailia scores more
18%
level
22%
Zamalek SC scores more
60%

Zamalek SC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
N. MansyZamalek SCZamalek SC · F
8.3

Match Events

38'
A. Sherif↳ N. Mansy
42'
O. Dabbagh
45'
M. I. HassanOwn goal
46'
O. El Said← E. El Fayoumi
52'
A. Sherif
61'
Y. Wael← A. Hamdi
62'
O. El Said↳ A. Sulieman
64'
Ahmed Hamzawi
65'
Mohamed Ismail
71'
Mohamed Saied Zika← M. Hany
73'
N. Mansy
74'
M. Shehata← M. Ismail
74'
A. El Said← A. Sherif
77'
Mohamed Juhayna
77'
M. Koshary← H. El Shazly
77'
A. Maradona← M. Farouk
84'
Mohamed Ibrahim Hassan
85'
Youssef Wael
86'
M. Medhat← S. Elkhashab
87'
O. Dabbagh↳ N. Mansy
89'
M. Hamad← M. I. Hassan
89'
A. Abdelaziz← A. Kaied
90+9'
Naser MansiGoal cancelled

Possession

46%Kahraba

Shots

15Kahraba

Pass accuracy

47%Kahraba

Statistics

KahrabaZamalek
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots29
3Corners3
7Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots29
4On Target10
9Off Target10
2Blocked9
7Inside Box21
8Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
373Total Passes444
289Accurate Passes381
77%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides4

Premier League: Kahraba Ismailia 2–5 Zamalek SC

Zamalek SC beat Kahraba Ismailia 5-2 in Premier League on February 4, 2026.

Goals: A. Sherif (38', 52'), O. Dabbagh (42', 87'), M. I. Hassan (45' o.g.), O. El Said (62'), N. Mansy (73').

Zamalek SC controlled possession (54%) and registered 29 shots to 15.

The match was played at Suez Canal Stadium in Ismailia.