Kahraba Ismailia vs Smouha SC — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Kahraba Ismailia27%
Smouha SC48%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Smouha SC creates 42% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 124 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kahraba Ismailia ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kahraba Ismailia at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches
Smouha SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 124 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kahraba Ismailia attack 0.95 + Smouha SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06
Smouha SC attack 1.02 + Kahraba Ismailia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.51
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Smouha SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Smouha SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Zamalek SC
Pyramids FC
Al Ahly
Wadi Degla
Masr
National Bank of Egypt
El Gouna FC
Petrojet
Ceramica Cleopatra
AL Masry
Ghazl El Mehalla
El Mokawloon
Future FC
El Geish
Enppi
Al IttihadKahraba IsmailiaSmouha SC
Haras El Hodood
Pharco
Ismaily SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kahraba Ismailia host Smouha SC on Tuesday, 26 August 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Kahraba Ismailia 1 – 2 Smouha SC
Smouha SC beat Kahraba Ismailia 2-1 in Premier League on August 26, 2025.
Goals: S. Amadi (8'), A. Sulieman (52'), A. Yehia (90').
The match was played at Kahrabaa Ismailia Stadium in Ismailia.