Kahraba Ismailia 1–1 Ismaily SC: Result & Stats

Kahraba Ismailia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ismaily SC

O. El Said 89'

K. Shehata 55'

4/14/2026

Premier League · Relegation Group - 4Suez Canal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Kahraba Ismailia29%

×Draw32%

Ismaily SC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kahraba IsmailiaExpected goals in this matchIsmaily SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.01

Kahraba Ismailia

0.82

Ismaily SC

1.01

Ismaily SC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

0.69

creates per match

0.67

1.35

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Kahraba Ismailia

0.69

Ismaily SC

0.67

allows per match

Kahraba Ismailia

1.35

Ismaily SC

0.95

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Kahraba Ismailia+0.31scores more

Ismaily SC-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahraba Ismailia ↓

Ismaily SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Kahraba Ismailia or draw

61%

Kahraba Ismailia or Ismaily SC

68%

Draw or Ismaily SC

71%

Winning margin

Kahraba Ismailia wins by 2+

9%

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kahraba Ismailia 1+ goals

56%

Kahraba Ismailia 2+ goals

20%

Kahraba Ismailia 3+ goals

5%

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

64%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

27%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kahraba Ismailia (draw refunded)

42%

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahraba Ismailia at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 7 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahraba Ismailia attack 0.69 + Ismaily SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Ismaily SC attack 0.67 + Kahraba Ismailia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kahraba Ismailia scores more

29%

level

32%

Ismaily SC scores more

39%

Ismaily SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ismaily SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

A. El Gabry

Kahraba Ismailia · G

7.5

Match Events

24'

Anwar AbdelsalamGoal cancelled

31'

O. Ahmed← E. Traore

45+3'

Abdel Fattah Sheta

45+3'

Mohamed Hassan

45+9'

Anwar AbdelsalamGoal cancelled

46'

M. Farouk← A. Maradona

47'

Ibrahim El Nagaawy

55'

K. Shehata

68'

M. Said← S. Al Agouz

68'

O. El Said← M. A. Rahim

75'

A. Katkot← A. El Dah

75'

A. Ayman← I. El Nagaawy

77'

E. El Fayoumi← J. Ngwem

81'

A. Hamza← K. Yehia

83'

M. Ehab← M. Nasr

83'

M. El Atty← A. Abdelsalam

89'

O. El Said↳ H. El Shazly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KahrabaIsmaily

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots12

0.48Expected Goals (xG)1.54

2Corners6

11Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots12

1On Target5

5Off Target3

1Blocked4

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

279Total Passes337

196Accurate Passes262

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-0.67Goals Prevented-0.67

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3