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Kahibah vs West Wallsend — NNSW League 1 2026

Kahibah
Kahibah
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
West Wallsend
West Wallsend
7/24/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 14Kahibah Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kahibah54%
×Draw20%
West Wallsend26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahibah
2.25
West Wallsend
1.51

Kahibah creates 49% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kahibah
2.67
West Wallsend
1.89

allows per match

Kahibah
1.14
West Wallsend
1.82

finishing

Kahibah+0.00on par
West Wallsend+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahibah ↓

West Wallsend →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kahibah or draw
74%
Kahibah or West Wallsend
80%
Draw or West Wallsend
46%

Winning margin

Kahibah wins by 2+
33%
West Wallsend wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kahibah 1+ goals
89%
Kahibah 2+ goals
65%
Kahibah 3+ goals
39%
West Wallsend 1+ goals
78%
West Wallsend 2+ goals
44%
West Wallsend 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kahibah (draw refunded)
68%
West Wallsend (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahibah at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

West Wallsend away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahibah attack 2.67 + West Wallsend defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.25

West Wallsend attack 1.89 + Kahibah defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kahibah scores more
54%
level
20%
West Wallsend scores more
26%

Kahibah at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kahibah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Kahibah 4–1 West Wallsend

Kahibah beat West Wallsend 4-1 in NNSW League 1 on July 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kahibah Oval in Charlestown.