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Kahibah vs Toronto Awaba Stags — NNSW League 1 2026

Kahibah
Kahibah
FT
1 – 4
Toronto Awaba Stags
Toronto Awaba Stags
3/15/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 4Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kahibah46%
×Draw21%
Toronto Awaba Stags33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kahibah
2.19
Toronto Awaba Stags
1.85

Kahibah creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

Kahibah
2.67
Toronto Awaba Stags
2.56

allows per match

Kahibah
1.14
Toronto Awaba Stags
1.70

finishing

Kahibah+0.00on par
Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kahibah ↓

Toronto Awaba Stags →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kahibah or draw
67%
Kahibah or Toronto Awaba Stags
79%
Draw or Toronto Awaba Stags
54%

Winning margin

Kahibah wins by 2+
27%
Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kahibah 1+ goals
89%
Kahibah 2+ goals
64%
Kahibah 3+ goals
37%
Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals
84%
Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals
55%
Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kahibah (draw refunded)
58%
Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kahibah at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Toronto Awaba Stags away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kahibah attack 2.67 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.19

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 2.56 + Kahibah defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kahibah scores more
46%
level
21%
Toronto Awaba Stags scores more
33%

Kahibah at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kahibah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Kahibah 1–4 Toronto Awaba Stags

Toronto Awaba Stags beat Kahibah 4-1 in NNSW League 1 on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1 in Newcastle.