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Kagoshima United vs Ventforet Kofu — J2 League 2018

Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
4/3/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 8Shiranami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kagoshima United33%
×Draw27%
Ventforet Kofu39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagoshima United
1.16
Ventforet Kofu
1.29

Ventforet Kofu creates 11% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 166 away

creates per match

Kagoshima United
1.18
Ventforet Kofu
1.29

allows per match

Kagoshima United
1.30
Ventforet Kofu
1.14

finishing

Kagoshima United+0.00on par
Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagoshima United ↓

Ventforet Kofu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kagoshima United or draw
61%
Kagoshima United or Ventforet Kofu
73%
Draw or Ventforet Kofu
67%

Winning margin

Kagoshima United wins by 2+
14%
Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kagoshima United 1+ goals
69%
Kagoshima United 2+ goals
32%
Kagoshima United 3+ goals
11%
Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
72%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
37%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)
46%
Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagoshima United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagoshima United attack 1.18 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + Kagoshima United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kagoshima United scores more
33%
level
27%
Ventforet Kofu scores more
39%

Ventforet Kofu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kagoshima United 0–1 Ventforet Kofu

Ventforet Kofu beat Kagoshima United 1-0 in J2 League on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at Shiranami Stadium in Kagoshima.