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Kagoshima United vs Tokyo Verdy — J2 League 2018

Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
Han Yong-Thae 42', 8'
T. Ushinohama 40'
J. Koike 51'
6/9/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 17Kagoshima Kamoike Stadium (Yojiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kagoshima United34%
×Draw27%
Tokyo Verdy40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagoshima United
1.21
Tokyo Verdy
1.34

Tokyo Verdy creates 11% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 131 away

creates per match

Kagoshima United
1.18
Tokyo Verdy
1.38

allows per match

Kagoshima United
1.30
Tokyo Verdy
1.25

finishing

Kagoshima United+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagoshima United ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kagoshima United or draw
60%
Kagoshima United or Tokyo Verdy
73%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
66%

Winning margin

Kagoshima United wins by 2+
14%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kagoshima United 1+ goals
70%
Kagoshima United 2+ goals
34%
Kagoshima United 3+ goals
12%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
74%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
39%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)
46%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagoshima United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagoshima United attack 1.18 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Kagoshima United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kagoshima United scores more
34%
level
27%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
40%

Tokyo Verdy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Han Yong-Thae
32'
A. Akao
40'
T. Ushinohama
42'
Han Yong-Thae
51'
J. Koike
74'
J. Goryo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kagoshima United vs Tokyo Verdy

Kagoshima United beat Tokyo Verdy 3-1 in J2 League on June 9, 2019.

Goals: Han Yong-Thae (8', 42'), T. Ushinohama (40'), J. Koike (51').

The match was played at Kagoshima Kamoike Stadium (Yojiro).