Kagoshima United 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Kagoshima United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Renofa Yamaguchi

4/28/2024

J2 League · Round 12Shiranami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kagoshima United41%

×Draw27%

Renofa Yamaguchi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kagoshima UnitedExpected goals in this matchRenofa Yamaguchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.14

Kagoshima United

1.34

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.14

Kagoshima United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 168 away

1.18

creates per match

0.98

1.30

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kagoshima United

1.18

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.98

allows per match

Kagoshima United

1.30

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kagoshima United+0.00on par

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagoshima United ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kagoshima United or draw

68%

Kagoshima United or Renofa Yamaguchi

73%

Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi

59%

Winning margin

Kagoshima United wins by 2+

19%

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kagoshima United 1+ goals

74%

Kagoshima United 2+ goals

39%

Kagoshima United 3+ goals

15%

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

68%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

32%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)

57%

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagoshima United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagoshima United attack 1.18 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Kagoshima United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kagoshima United scores more

41%

level

27%

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

32%

Kagoshima United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kagoshima United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff