Kagoshima United 0–1 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

Kagoshima United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Machida Zelvia

3/24/2019

J2 League · Round 5Kagoshima Kamoike Stadium (Yojiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kagoshima United33%

×Draw27%

Machida Zelvia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kagoshima UnitedExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.31

Kagoshima United

1.15

Machida Zelvia

1.31

Machida Zelvia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 127 away

1.18

creates per match

1.31

1.30

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Kagoshima United

1.18

Machida Zelvia

1.31

allows per match

Kagoshima United

1.30

Machida Zelvia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kagoshima United+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagoshima United ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kagoshima United or draw

60%

Kagoshima United or Machida Zelvia

73%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

67%

Winning margin

Kagoshima United wins by 2+

13%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kagoshima United 1+ goals

68%

Kagoshima United 2+ goals

32%

Kagoshima United 3+ goals

11%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

73%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

38%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)

45%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagoshima United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagoshima United attack 1.18 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Kagoshima United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kagoshima United scores more

33%

level

27%

Machida Zelvia scores more

40%

Machida Zelvia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff