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Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
2/16/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 16Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kagera Sugar44%
×Draw31%
Mashujaa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagera Sugar
1.15
Mashujaa
0.81

Kagera Sugar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kagera Sugar
0.97
Mashujaa
0.71

allows per match

Kagera Sugar
0.92
Mashujaa
1.33

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw
74%
Kagera Sugar or Mashujaa
69%
Draw or Mashujaa
56%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
19%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
68%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
32%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
11%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
56%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
19%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
63%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + Mashujaa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mashujaa attack 0.71 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more
44%
level
31%
Mashujaa scores more
26%

Kagera Sugar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kagera Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Kagera Sugar 1–1 Mashujaa

Kagera Sugar and Mashujaa drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Kaitaba Stadium in Bukoba.