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Kaganat vs Talant — Premier League 2019

Kaganat
Kaganat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Talant
Talant
11/4/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kaganat44%
×Draw27%
Talant29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaganat
1.35
Talant
1.05

Kaganat creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

creates per match

Kaganat
1.35
Talant
0.98

allows per match

Kaganat
1.12
Talant
1.36

finishing

Kaganat+0.00on par
Talant+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaganat ↓

Talant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kaganat or draw
71%
Kaganat or Talant
73%
Draw or Talant
56%

Winning margin

Kaganat wins by 2+
20%
Talant wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kaganat 1+ goals
74%
Kaganat 2+ goals
39%
Kaganat 3+ goals
15%
Talant 1+ goals
65%
Talant 2+ goals
28%
Talant 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kaganat (draw refunded)
60%
Talant (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaganat at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Talant away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaganat attack 1.35 + Talant defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Talant attack 0.98 + Kaganat defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kaganat scores more
44%
level
27%
Talant scores more
29%

Kaganat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kaganat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kaganat 1–1 Talant

Kaganat and Talant drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion in Osh.