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Kaganat vs Ilbirs — Premier League 2019

Kaganat
Kaganat
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ilbirs
Ilbirs
10/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kaganat51%
×Draw25%
Ilbirs24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaganat
1.61
Ilbirs
1.02

Kaganat creates 58% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

creates per match

Kaganat
1.35
Ilbirs
0.92

allows per match

Kaganat
1.12
Ilbirs
1.88

finishing

Kaganat+0.00on par
Ilbirs+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaganat ↓

Ilbirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kaganat or draw
76%
Kaganat or Ilbirs
75%
Draw or Ilbirs
49%

Winning margin

Kaganat wins by 2+
27%
Ilbirs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kaganat 1+ goals
80%
Kaganat 2+ goals
48%
Kaganat 3+ goals
22%
Ilbirs 1+ goals
64%
Ilbirs 2+ goals
27%
Ilbirs 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kaganat (draw refunded)
68%
Ilbirs (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaganat at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Ilbirs away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaganat attack 1.35 + Ilbirs defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ilbirs attack 0.92 + Kaganat defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kaganat scores more
51%
level
25%
Ilbirs scores more
24%

Kaganat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kaganat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kaganat 0–2 Ilbirs

Ilbirs beat Kaganat 2-0 in Premier League on October 21, 2021.

The match was played at Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion in Osh.