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Kaganat vs Dordoi Bishkek — Premier League 2019

Kaganat
Kaganat
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dordoi Bishkek
Dordoi Bishkek
9/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kaganat31%
×Draw26%
Dordoi Bishkek43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaganat
1.17
Dordoi Bishkek
1.43

Dordoi Bishkek creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

creates per match

Kaganat
1.35
Dordoi Bishkek
1.73

allows per match

Kaganat
1.12
Dordoi Bishkek
0.99

finishing

Kaganat+0.00on par
Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaganat ↓

Dordoi Bishkek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kaganat or draw
57%
Kaganat or Dordoi Bishkek
74%
Draw or Dordoi Bishkek
69%

Winning margin

Kaganat wins by 2+
13%
Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kaganat 1+ goals
69%
Kaganat 2+ goals
33%
Kaganat 3+ goals
11%
Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals
76%
Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals
42%
Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kaganat (draw refunded)
42%
Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaganat at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Dordoi Bishkek away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.99 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaganat attack 1.35 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.73 + Kaganat defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kaganat scores more
31%
level
26%
Dordoi Bishkek scores more
43%

Dordoi Bishkek at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dordoi Bishkek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaganat vs Dordoi Bishkek

Dordoi Bishkek beat Kaganat 2-0 in Premier League on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion in Osh.