Kafr Qasim 2–0 Sektzia Nes Tziona: Result & Stats

Kafr Qasim

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sektzia Nes Tziona

12/22/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 14HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kafr Qasim42%

×Draw27%

Sektzia Nes Tziona32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kafr QasimExpected goals in this matchSektzia Nes Tziona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.15

Kafr Qasim

1.36

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.15

Kafr Qasim creates 18% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 55 away

1.25

creates per match

1.13

1.16

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kafr Qasim

1.25

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.13

allows per match

Kafr Qasim

1.16

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw

68%

Kafr Qasim or Sektzia Nes Tziona

73%

Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona

58%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+

19%

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals

74%

Kafr Qasim 2+ goals

39%

Kafr Qasim 3+ goals

16%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals

68%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals

32%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)

57%

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.13 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more

42%

level

27%

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more

32%

Kafr Qasim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff