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Kafr Qasim vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
4/4/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 1Bat Yam Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Kafr Qasim38%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kafr Qasim
1.35
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 74 away

creates per match

Kafr Qasim
1.25
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Kafr Qasim
1.16
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw
64%
Kafr Qasim or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
74%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
62%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
17%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
74%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
39%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
15%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
73%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
38%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
51%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more
38%
level
26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
36%

Kafr Qasim at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kafr Qasim vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Kafr Qasim and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Bat Yam Municipal Stadium in Bat Yam.