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Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm — Liga Leumit 2019

Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
10/13/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 8Bat Yam Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Kafr Qasim42%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kafr Qasim
1.34
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.11

Kafr Qasim creates 21% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 112 away

creates per match

Kafr Qasim
1.25
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

allows per match

Kafr Qasim
1.16
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.44

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw
69%
Kafr Qasim or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
73%
Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
58%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
19%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
74%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
39%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
67%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
58%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more
42%
level
27%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
31%

Kafr Qasim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Kafr Qasim and Hapoel Umm al-Fahm drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Bat Yam Municipal Stadium in Bat Yam.