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Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Liga Leumit 2019

Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
2/26/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 23HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Kafr Qasim38%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kafr Qasim
1.27
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 95 away

creates per match

Kafr Qasim
1.25
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.25

allows per match

Kafr Qasim
1.16
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.28

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw
65%
Kafr Qasim or Hapoel Kfar Saba
73%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
62%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
17%
Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
72%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
36%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
14%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
52%
Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.25 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more
38%
level
27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
35%

Kafr Qasim at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Kafr Qasim 2–3 Hapoel Kfar Saba

Hapoel Kfar Saba beat Kafr Qasim 3-2 in Liga Leumit on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.