Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Hapoel Kfar Saba35%
Kafr Qasim38%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 19 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches
Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.32 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24
Kafr Qasim attack 1.11 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Kafr Qasim at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel AfulaKafr Qasim
Hapoel Acre
Ironi Modi'in
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel HaderaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Kfar Saba host Kafr Qasim on Monday, 17 March 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Kafr Qasim
Hapoel Kfar Saba beat Kafr Qasim 1-0 in Liga Leumit on March 17, 2025.
Goals: M. Yosef (9').
The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.