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Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Acre — Liga Leumit 2019

Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
1/2/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 17Bat Yam Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Kafr Qasim39%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Acre33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kafr Qasim
1.24
Hapoel Acre
1.11

Kafr Qasim creates 12% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

creates per match

Kafr Qasim
1.25
Hapoel Acre
1.07

allows per match

Kafr Qasim
1.16
Hapoel Acre
1.23

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par
Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Hapoel Acre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw
67%
Kafr Qasim or Hapoel Acre
72%
Draw or Hapoel Acre
61%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
17%
Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
71%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
35%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
67%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
54%
Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more
39%
level
28%
Hapoel Acre scores more
33%

Kafr Qasim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Kafr Qasim 1–0 Hapoel Acre

Kafr Qasim beat Hapoel Acre 1-0 in Liga Leumit on January 2, 2026.

The match was played at Bat Yam Municipal Stadium in Bat Yam.