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Kafr Qasim vs Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla — Liga Leumit 2019

Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
3/17/2022Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 30HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Kafr Qasim42%
×Draw27%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kafr Qasim
1.38
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.15

Kafr Qasim creates 20% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 56 away

creates per match

Kafr Qasim
1.25
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.14

allows per match

Kafr Qasim
1.16
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.50

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw
69%
Kafr Qasim or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
73%
Draw or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
58%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
20%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
75%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
40%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
16%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals
68%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals
32%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
57%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.14 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more
42%
level
27%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more
31%

Kafr Qasim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Kafr Qasim 1–1 Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

Kafr Qasim and Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on March 17, 2022.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.