Kafr Qasim vs Agudat Sport Ashdod — Liga Leumit 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Kafr Qasim54%
Agudat Sport Ashdod21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kafr Qasim creates 80% more chances
Season form · 116 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kafr Qasim ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 116 matches
Agudat Sport Ashdod away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kafr Qasim attack 1.29 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.60
Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 0.61 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.89
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Kafr Qasim at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kafr Qasim host Agudat Sport Ashdod on Friday, 3 February 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2019/2020 season.
Liga Leumit: Kafr Qasim 4–1 Agudat Sport Ashdod
Kafr Qasim beat Agudat Sport Ashdod 4-1 in Liga Leumit on February 3, 2023.
Goals: R. Dayan (2', 86'), R. Fadida (18'), T. Sages (36'), E. Hershkovich (68').
The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.