Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaédi vs Garde Nationale — Premier League 2020

Kaédi
Kaédi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
12/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stade de Kaédi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Kaédi36%
×Draw30%
Garde Nationale34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaédi
1.04
Garde Nationale
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 64 away

creates per match

Kaédi
1.09
Garde Nationale
0.89

allows per match

Kaédi
1.10
Garde Nationale
1.00

finishing

Kaédi+0.00on par
Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaédi ↓

Garde Nationale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kaédi or draw
66%
Kaédi or Garde Nationale
70%
Draw or Garde Nationale
64%

Winning margin

Kaédi wins by 2+
14%
Garde Nationale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kaédi 1+ goals
65%
Kaédi 2+ goals
28%
Kaédi 3+ goals
9%
Garde Nationale 1+ goals
63%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
26%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kaédi (draw refunded)
51%
Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaédi at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 78 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaédi attack 1.09 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + Kaédi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kaédi scores more
36%
level
30%
Garde Nationale scores more
34%

Kaédi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kaédi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaédi vs Garde Nationale

Kaédi beat Garde Nationale 1-0 in Premier League on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Kaédi in Kaédi.