Kaédi 2–4 Al Hilal Omdurman: Result & Stats

Kaédi

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Al Hilal Omdurman

5/9/2025

Premier League · Round 23Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kaédi19%

×Draw26%

Al Hilal Omdurman56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaédiExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Omdurman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.55

Kaédi

0.77

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.55

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 101% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 16 away

1.09

creates per match

2.00

1.10

allows per match

0.44

creates per match

Kaédi

1.09

Al Hilal Omdurman

2.00

allows per match

Kaédi

1.10

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaédi+0.00on par

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaédi ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kaédi or draw

44%

Kaédi or Al Hilal Omdurman

74%

Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman

81%

Winning margin

Kaédi wins by 2+

5%

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Kaédi 1+ goals

54%

Kaédi 2+ goals

18%

Kaédi 3+ goals

4%

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

79%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

46%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kaédi (draw refunded)

25%

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaédi at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 78 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaédi attack 1.09 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.77

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.00 + Kaédi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kaédi scores more

19%

level

26%

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

56%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff