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Kadino vs Velazerimi 77 — Second League 2019

Kadino
Kadino
FT
0 – 1
Velazerimi 77
Velazerimi 77
9/19/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 4Teren FK Kadino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kadino49%
×Draw28%
Velazerimi 7723%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kadino
1.36
Velazerimi 77
0.84

Kadino creates 62% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kadino
1.19
Velazerimi 77
0.79

allows per match

Kadino
0.90
Velazerimi 77
1.54

finishing

Kadino+0.00on par
Velazerimi 77+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kadino ↓

Velazerimi 77 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kadino or draw
77%
Kadino or Velazerimi 77
72%
Draw or Velazerimi 77
51%

Winning margin

Kadino wins by 2+
23%
Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kadino 1+ goals
74%
Kadino 2+ goals
39%
Kadino 3+ goals
16%
Velazerimi 77 1+ goals
57%
Velazerimi 77 2+ goals
21%
Velazerimi 77 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kadino (draw refunded)
68%
Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kadino at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Velazerimi 77 away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kadino attack 1.19 + Velazerimi 77 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Velazerimi 77 attack 0.79 + Kadino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kadino scores more
49%
level
28%
Velazerimi 77 scores more
23%

Kadino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kadino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kadino vs Velazerimi 77

Velazerimi 77 beat Kadino 1-0 in Second League on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Teren FK Kadino in Kadino.