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Kadino vs Ohrid — Second League 2019

Kadino
Kadino
FT
1 – 0
Ohrid
Ohrid
10/10/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 7Teren FK Kadino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kadino43%
×Draw29%
Ohrid28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kadino
1.23
Ohrid
0.93

Kadino creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 82 away

creates per match

Kadino
1.19
Ohrid
0.95

allows per match

Kadino
0.90
Ohrid
1.27

finishing

Kadino+0.00on par
Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kadino ↓

Ohrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kadino or draw
72%
Kadino or Ohrid
71%
Draw or Ohrid
57%

Winning margin

Kadino wins by 2+
19%
Ohrid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kadino 1+ goals
71%
Kadino 2+ goals
35%
Kadino 3+ goals
13%
Ohrid 1+ goals
61%
Ohrid 2+ goals
24%
Ohrid 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kadino (draw refunded)
61%
Ohrid (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kadino at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kadino attack 1.19 + Ohrid defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ohrid attack 0.95 + Kadino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kadino scores more
43%
level
29%
Ohrid scores more
28%

Kadino at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kadino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Kadino 1–0 Ohrid

Kadino beat Ohrid 1-0 in Second League on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Teren FK Kadino in Kadino.