Kadaga 0–6 Smiltene: Result & Stats | Cup

Kadaga

0 – 6

Smiltene

7/18/2021

Cup · 2nd RoundĀdažu sporta centra stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kadaga16%

×Draw16%

Smiltene68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KadagaExpected goals in this matchSmiltene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.98

Kadaga

1.45

Smiltene

2.98

Smiltene creates 106% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

3.29

2.67

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Kadaga

1.33

Smiltene

3.29

allows per match

Kadaga

2.67

Smiltene

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kadaga+0.00on par

Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kadaga ↓

Smiltene →

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Kadaga or draw

32%

Kadaga or Smiltene

84%

Draw or Smiltene

84%

Winning margin

Kadaga wins by 2+

Smiltene wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Kadaga 1+ goals

77%

Kadaga 2+ goals

42%

Kadaga 3+ goals

18%

Smiltene 1+ goals

95%

Smiltene 2+ goals

79%

Smiltene 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Kadaga (draw refunded)

20%

Smiltene (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kadaga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Smiltene away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kadaga attack 1.33 + Smiltene defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Smiltene attack 3.29 + Kadaga defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kadaga scores more

16%

level

16%

Smiltene scores more

68%

Smiltene at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Smiltene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff